Saturday, June 17, 2006

Your city might be underprepared in an emergency

As with everything else, people and institutions (such as govts) are more prepared to deal with regular events and less with irregular / less likely events. Thus, govts in India that have the mechanisms to deal with yearly floods and droughts were found inadequate in dealing with the tsunami. Pre-Katrina, most reports that warned of a disaster in the making were dismissed as fanciful (i.e., low probability).

Once an event happens, people (and institutions) place a very high probability on a repeat.
Though a tsunami is very unlikely, funds-starved state govts in India discussed a reallocation of funds from basic anti-poverty programmes to plans to build a (ridiculous) wall between the sea and the land. Similarly, every US city is preparing to meet a 911 type of attack though the risk of "regular" terrorism (such as bombs in crowded places) seems much higher - simply because these cowardly acts are easier to execute than the cowardly act of ramming a plane into a building.

Shouldn't emergency planning be more rigorous and practical than this?

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